As I'm sure you're realizing this sort of tracking isn't always easy to do. Not all candidates will wind up in the same sorts of places. My anecdotal experience will be a biased sample. Here are some factors that emerge with this.
1. Many candidates will land in staff positions. Fewer women will be solo or lead pastor positions compared to men. That means that if women tend to skew "left" many of those candidates will be absorbed in a smaller number of more left leaning churches or in denominational staff positions. Women are far more likely to work in the denomination than men, hence their influence is likely concentrated in areas that already lean "left" than men.
2. the rise of the commissioned pastor is significant in small churches. They are predominantly male and often without an M.Div. They will have a lot of classical votes and Synod votes, more than women. They tend to be less well educated and also lean populist and conservative.
3. West Michigan is a hotspot for sticky candidates who have spouses who won't/can't move. Again, a higher portion of women. Most will take staff positions in a West Michigan church or in denominational ministries or some sort of chaplaincy.
Numbers aren't always easy to track. Fortunately they are often small enough that you can actually track names.
It's likely that Classisical and Synodical delegations are more conservative than people in the pew. This is sort of a reverse from historic trends when clergy were more educated often than their congregations. Education having a decidedly liberalizing impact generally speaking.
I still think the largest conservative influence is the decline of CRC world cities population. Just the decline in NYC/NJ, Chicago, LA, SF, Toronto, alone might be enough to account for what we're seeing.
You're right on the tracking issue, but I think it's pretty reliable, at least for making these kinds of claims. As far as I call tell, all the "non-traditional" stuff is tracked pretty well, including denominational positions, commissioned pastors, chaplains, etc.--i.e. all the non-lead-pastor roles. That data is sloppy and isn't perfect, but it's equally imperfect year-to-year, so I think it's still useful for tracking trends, at least broadly. I was expecting to see a bunch of Westminster, RTS, and Mid-America MDivs, and the numbers just aren't there.
This is probably true, too: "It's likely that Classisical and Synodical delegations are more conservative than people in the pew." It's somewhat self-selecting. A point I'm thinking through and making in today's post is that there's a kind of self-selecting happening: more right-leaning individuals in the denomination are more likely to go to seminary in the first place.
This post has excellent data. One thought: are “left leaning” seminary graduates going into alternative forms of ministry such as chaplaincy whereas more conservative graduates going into parish ministry?
I look forward to your next article to see the point you're trying to get to.
I'm not sure the CRC is getting more conservative, rather SSM is just a bridge too far for many who don't think of themselves necessarily as conservative.
I think there were some studies done with numbers on SSM supporters hopefully you've dug up.
"I’m too cheap to buy access to the video…"
ME TOO!!!
As I'm sure you're realizing this sort of tracking isn't always easy to do. Not all candidates will wind up in the same sorts of places. My anecdotal experience will be a biased sample. Here are some factors that emerge with this.
1. Many candidates will land in staff positions. Fewer women will be solo or lead pastor positions compared to men. That means that if women tend to skew "left" many of those candidates will be absorbed in a smaller number of more left leaning churches or in denominational staff positions. Women are far more likely to work in the denomination than men, hence their influence is likely concentrated in areas that already lean "left" than men.
2. the rise of the commissioned pastor is significant in small churches. They are predominantly male and often without an M.Div. They will have a lot of classical votes and Synod votes, more than women. They tend to be less well educated and also lean populist and conservative.
3. West Michigan is a hotspot for sticky candidates who have spouses who won't/can't move. Again, a higher portion of women. Most will take staff positions in a West Michigan church or in denominational ministries or some sort of chaplaincy.
Numbers aren't always easy to track. Fortunately they are often small enough that you can actually track names.
It's likely that Classisical and Synodical delegations are more conservative than people in the pew. This is sort of a reverse from historic trends when clergy were more educated often than their congregations. Education having a decidedly liberalizing impact generally speaking.
I still think the largest conservative influence is the decline of CRC world cities population. Just the decline in NYC/NJ, Chicago, LA, SF, Toronto, alone might be enough to account for what we're seeing.
You're right on the tracking issue, but I think it's pretty reliable, at least for making these kinds of claims. As far as I call tell, all the "non-traditional" stuff is tracked pretty well, including denominational positions, commissioned pastors, chaplains, etc.--i.e. all the non-lead-pastor roles. That data is sloppy and isn't perfect, but it's equally imperfect year-to-year, so I think it's still useful for tracking trends, at least broadly. I was expecting to see a bunch of Westminster, RTS, and Mid-America MDivs, and the numbers just aren't there.
This is probably true, too: "It's likely that Classisical and Synodical delegations are more conservative than people in the pew." It's somewhat self-selecting. A point I'm thinking through and making in today's post is that there's a kind of self-selecting happening: more right-leaning individuals in the denomination are more likely to go to seminary in the first place.
This post has excellent data. One thought: are “left leaning” seminary graduates going into alternative forms of ministry such as chaplaincy whereas more conservative graduates going into parish ministry?
I don’t love the terms, but I haven’t figured out a better alternative.
I look forward to your next article to see the point you're trying to get to.
I'm not sure the CRC is getting more conservative, rather SSM is just a bridge too far for many who don't think of themselves necessarily as conservative.
I think there were some studies done with numbers on SSM supporters hopefully you've dug up.